The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, March 12, edition that 2026 was expected to be a quiet year for mortgage rates. The Globe's Salmaan Farooqui writes that the conflict in the Middle East, however, has caused oil prices to surge. This spike may lead to inflation and prompt the Bank of Canada to raise rates. As well, the five-year bond yield in Canada has risen from 2.7 per cent to 3 per cent for the first time since early 2026. All of this spells higher fixed and variable mortgage rates. Rates.ca's Victor Tran says lenders he works with have already increased fixed rates by 10 to 15 basis points since the beginning of the Iran war. If you are a homeowner renewing your mortgage or buying your first home, one possibility to consider is that President Donald Trump might quickly back off from the war. CIBC economist Benjamin Tal believes this is the most likely outcome. He expects the war might be short-lived, and adds that it would only take weeks or months for markets to return to normal after a quick end to the conflict. Mr. Tal says the BOC will be forced to increase interest rates if the war continues, because if oil prices continue to rise, that would apply broad inflationary pressure across the economy.