The Globe and Mail reports in it Tuesday, Aug. 18, edition that Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh says raising interest rates, though unpopular, is the most effective way to bring inflation back to target.
An Associated Press dispatch to The Globe reports that draining excess liquidity from the financial system or relying on an artificial intelligence-fueled productivity boom to curb inflation are alternatives suggested by Mr. Warsh. However, to achieve price stability and signal a commitment to fighting inflation, these options are inadequate compared with traditional rate hikes.
Adjusting interest rates isn't a quick fix. Traditionally, monetary policy impacts the economy within 12 to 24 months, though this can vary. However, better communication, technology and digitized markets are reducing this lag. Mr. Warsh estimates it may now be closer to nine to 12 months.
Whatever the number is, the transmission effects of balance sheet changes and productivity gain take even longer. That's if they exist at all.
Recent economic indicators have given the Fed some breathing room, but if inflation stays significantly above 2 per cent, Mr. Warsh will face greater pressure to act. Balance sheets and productivity won't suffice.
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