The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that early predictions for oil prices after U.S.-Iran peace talks in April were buoyed by geopolitical tensions and export disruptions. The Globe's David Berman writes that now, experts are adjusting their forecasts, with some anticipating further declines extending into next year.
Analysts at JPMorgan expect that the price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, will fall to $64 a barrel next year (all figures U.S.). Early Friday, Brent crude traded at $72.09 a barrel, down from a recent high of $119.50 in March.
Citigroup analysts expect Brent oil to fall as low as $60 a barrel over the next six to 12 months.
The reasoning here: The energy market is not yet reflecting a final deal between the U.S. and Iran that will secure the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
There may be brief oil rallies this summer -- say, from extreme weather events or geopolitical flare-ups in Lebanon -- but they will likely fade, Citi analysts argued in a midyear strategy note last week.
If they're right, it's not hard to imagine that Canadian energy stocks will continue to struggle.
Right now, they're lingering in an uncomfortable middle ground between cheap and pricey.
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