The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that with the 10-year Treasury yield now surpassing 5 per cent, investors are wondering how high it could rise. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates on Wednesday. Expectations suggest three more 25-basis-point increases over the next year, leading to a terminal rate of about 4.6 per cent, which is 100 basis points above the Fed's current target range of 3.50 per cent to 3.75 per cent. If this scenario plays out, it will be the shallowest tightening cycle in decades. The weight of history suggests the 10-year yield will likely rise. However, since the pandemic, investors face new economic and policy dynamics that undermine traditional rules of thumb, making past trends less reliable for predicting the future. While the Fed's policy decision on Wednesday may seem clearcut, what happens after that is anything but. Bonds are looking extremely attractive when adjusting for inflation. The yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are 2.60 per cent and 3.10 per cent, the highest since 2008. Strong demand at these levels means yields may not rise as much as they have in past cycles.