The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that the rerating of Alimentation Couche-Tard after it abandoned its bid for Seven & i has come and gone. Guest columnist Amber Kanwar writes that the stock has given up all its gains since the company announced in July it would not pursue the deal. Unfortunately, most analysts are not all that optimistic that earnings will be a turning point (although most still rate the stock a buy). Aside from its now-abandoned pursuit of the 7-Eleven stores, the company has struggled with sales of merchandise at its gas stations, particularly in the United States, as well as weaker fuel margins. Much of the stock's ability to recover may lie in the company's ability to turn around its U.S. sales. The chain has argued it is being hurt by soft consumer spending. Investors have some doubts that is truly what is going on. "We are unsure if weakness in the low-income consumer is the key driver of [Couche-Tard's] muted comps given broader economic data shows a resilient U.S. consumer," BMO's Tamy Chen wrote in a downgrade ahead of earnings. Ms. Chen thinks product mix might be a problem too, given that cigarettes, its largest category, is struggling compared with prepandemic levels.
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