The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday, March 2, edition that you can safely bet that oil prices will climb a lot when the energy markets reopen Monday. The Globe's Eric Reguly writes that it is not in Washington's interest to cripple Iran's oil infrastructure, and the U.S. seems to believe it is not in Tehran's either, meaning the Strait of Hormuz will likely remain partly open. Iran relies on oil revenue for survival, making the regime's continuity its top priority. The government must understand it cannot win a military conflict against the U.S. and Israel. Anything can happen in war, making predictions risky as conflict unfolds. However, the U.S. energy markets were favourable ahead of the war and may remain advantageous during it. The inevitable rise in prices Monday should be blunted somewhat by the gusher of oil supplies in the global markets. There is another reason why both Iran and the U.S. are probably motivated to keep Iran's oil industry, including Hormuz, in operation. While oil can be a weapon, it can also be a bargaining chip. At some point, Mr. Trump will want to declare victory and retreat, as he cannot afford a long war with U.S. casualties, especially in an election year.