The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates for the first time in four years on Wednesday, kicking off a long-awaited easing cycle and setting the tone for global financial markets heading into the fall. The Globe's Mark Rendell writes that the key question is whether the world's most important central bank will deliver a normal quarter-point rate cut, or opt for a larger move as inflation retreats and the United States' resilient economy loses steam. In the past, oversized cuts have typically been prompted by financial-market turmoil or fears of a recession, neither of which are especially evident right now. Fed policy-makers may also be wary of acting too forcefully, lest they are accused of political interference ahead of the November presidential election. Still, financial markets put the odds of a half-point rate cut at around 50 per cent on Friday, up significantly from bets earlier in the week. "I certainly think they will debate it. A lot of easing cycles actually have started with a pretty big 50-basis-point move," BMO chief economist Douglas Porter told The Globe. "But I would still lean marginally to a quarter-point cut."