The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that the Trudeau government's two-pronged announcement of a goods and services tax holiday on certain "essential" items and its pledge to dole out $250 to millions of people in the country has left economists scrambling to gauge the impact of Ottawa's $6.3-billion, election-style splurge. The Globe's Jason Kirby and Mark Rendell writes that with Canada's economy facing headwinds, the stimulus cheques and the sales tax break on items such as groceries, children's clothing, beer and Christmas trees are expected to spur consumers to open their wallets, boosting economic growth in the near term. However, the sugar high could fade quickly, as shoppers simply shift around the timing of their purchases. The spending -- coming on top of recent hotter-than-expected inflation data -- may help convince the Bank of Canada to slow its pace of interest-rate cuts. The new big-spending proposals also raise questions about Ottawa's ability to stay within its self-imposed deficit guardrails. BMO boosted its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2025 to 2.5 per cent from 1.7 per cent, but trimmed its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter, when the effect of the stimulus fades.
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