The Financial Post reports in its Saturday edition that Canada's economy gained momentum in the last quarter of 2024, growing at an annualized pace of 2.6 per cent to bring full-year growth to 1.5 per cent, Statistics Canada said on Friday. The Post's Jordan Gowling writes, however, that the economy faces significant risks in 2025, with the United States set to impose 25-per-cent tariffs. Economists say the Bank of Canada's decision to hold or cut its policy rate at its next meeting in March will largely depend on if tariffs are implemented. The policy rate is 3 per cent. "The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its policy rate steady -- for now," said Andrew Dicapua, economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. "But if tariffs emerge, a rate cut is almost certain." BMO economist Benjamin Reitzes thinks the 2024 data are already old news. "Unfortunately, most of this was largely before tariff threats really ramped up," he said in a note. "If Canada doesn't get tariffed [March 4], the Bank of Canada will pause its rate cut campaign at the March 12 meeting." Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has warned that damage to the Canadian economy caused by tariffs would be permanent and there would be no "bounce-back."
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