The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition that there are too many moving parts in the current equation to predict where interest rates will be next year. Guest columnist Gordon Pape writes that U.S. President Donald Trump wants interest rates cut by 300 basis points by February and is pressuring Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to act, Mr. Powell is not so keen. Mr. Trump is facing a conflict between his pursuit of lower rates and his policy of higher tariffs to protect U.S. industries and promote investments. If Mr. Trump pressures the Fed chair to resign, a replacement might be more compliant with his wishes. This could lead to falling interest rates amid rising inflation, causing significant harm to the U.S. economy. The Conference Board is not predicting a recession but warns of slower economic growth, expecting U.S. GDP to rise by 1.6 per cent this year as tariffs hit consumer spending in the second half. A slow-growth scenario may prompt the Fed to adopt an easing policy, but if stagflation occurs due to the combination of slowing growth and higher prices, the situation could change dramatically. The No. 1 responsibility of the Fed (and the Bank of Canada) is to keep inflation under control.