The Financial Post reports in its Wednesday, Sept. 18, edition that the inflation rate finally reached the Bank of Canada's target in August, easing to 2 per cent, its slowest increase since February, 2021. The Post's Denise Paglinawan writes that Derek Holt, head of Scotiabank Capital Markets Economics, cautioned against upsizing as core inflation picked up again in August over July. "Upsizing on the back of this data would be a policy misstep in my view," said Mr. Holt. While the Bank of Canada targets headline inflation of 2 per cent over the medium term, it uses its core gauges in higher frequency fashion to operationalize the likely, durable achievement of this mandate, he said. Mr. Holt added that it is unclear that underlying inflation has cooled fast enough to durably hit 2-per-cent headline inflation. He said prejudging this by accelerating easing could reignite inflationary pressure especially as shelter remains hot and could become hotter yet. The central bank's dovish reaction function may well upsize, but firstly, core inflationary pressures at the margin do not support doing so, "and it would be a dicey bet that growth does not accelerate faster than potential GDP growth and resurrecting inflation risk."
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