The Financial Post reports in its Wednesday edition that Canadian investors got a sneak peek into the potential winners and losers from a trade war on Monday, as markets tumbled to start the day before recovering after it was revealed that U.S. President Donald Trump had paused tariffs for 30 days, first on Mexico and then on Canada. The Post's Jane Switzer writes that most analysts have concluded that a trade war with Canada's biggest trading partner would be a losing scenario for investors. While tariffs do not apply to domestic lenders, a trade war could bring "serious negative implications" for Canadian bank stocks, as "their fortunes are intimately tied to the health of the Canadian economy," Bank of Nova Scotia analyst Meny Grauman said in a note Monday. Canadian banks could see "significant downside and volatility in the short term as a result of the tariffs and related economic uncertainty," RBC Capital Markets analyst Darko Mihelic said in a note on the weekend, before Monday's tariff pause. Mr. Mihelic said bank stocks could be affected by volatility in capital markets, an "abrupt and potentially volatile change" in Canada's economic situation, and large increases in performing provisions for credit losses.
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