The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, Nov. 23, edition that the Trudeau government's announcement of a GST holiday on certain essential items and a $250 payout to millions has economists assessing the impact of its $6.3-billion spending initiative. The Globe's Jason Kirby and Mark Rendell write that the stimulus cheques and the sales tax break on items such as groceries, children's clothing, beer and Christmas trees are expected to spur consumers to open their wallets.
However, the sugar high could fade quickly, as shoppers simply shift around the timing of their purchases. The jolt of spending may help convince the Bank of Canada to slow its pace of interest-rate cuts. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Avery Shenfeld says that the tax rebates could theoretically increase GDP by as much as a quarter-percentage-point next year, especially because fiscal stimulus has a bigger impact when there is slack in the economy, as is currently the case. He adds: "But that's only if these cheques are permitted to raise the federal deficit. If Ottawa is merely shifting funds from what it otherwise would have spent elsewhere, in order to stick to a given deficit target, the impact could be negated."
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