The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, Nov. 27, edition that economists were divided Tuesday about whether Donald Trump would actually follow through on his tariff threats. A triple bylined item in The Globe reports that some saw it as a negotiating tactic aimed at squeezing security concessions. Others saw it as the opening move in what could be a concerted effort by the Trump administration to dismantle the liberal trading order and replace it with a more transactional economic system built around boosting U.S. industrial capacity. CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld says in a note that even if Mr. Trump's proposed 25-per-cent punitive tariff does not happen, "this won't be the last set of negotiations over trade and tariffs with the new White House team." He adds, "The uncertainties over future trade access to the U.S. market could represent a significant drag on capital spending in Canada's export industries over the next couple of years, even if Canada and Mexico are able to ward off this immediate tariff threat by taking actions along the border." In the lead-up to the presidential election, economists estimated that a 10-per-cent universal tariff could significantly reduce Canada's GDP over the next few years.