The Financial Post reports in its Friday edition that most economists a month ago likely would have told you that Canadian interest rates would steadily decline during the first half of 2025 before stabilizing in the third quarter. The Post's Jordan Gowling writes that was before U.S. president-elect Donald Trump introduced the threat of a 25-per-cent tariff on all Canadian imports, a "major new uncertainty" that even Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said is clouding policy-makers' outlook. Given the range of projections for 2025, central bank watchers in Canada may want to heed that advice as well. "Ultimately, if we did get hit by that sort of shock, we're going to have to respond by getting more out of the domestic side of the economy," Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC, said in a year-end webinar. "So, we will likely have to take rates even lower than we expect." Desjardins chief economist Jimmy Jean believes the worst-case tariff scenario would mean cutting the policy rate by an extra 75 basis points from Desjardins's base case, which assumes there will be tariffs but to a lesser extent. "In this case, yes, indeed, we have the Bank of Canada reducing interest rates faster," Mr. Jean said.