The Financial Post reports in its Thursday edition that on Tuesday, geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran continued to unnerve global energy markets, propelling West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices higher by $1.65 a barrel to close at $61.15 (all figures U.S.). The Post's Chris Varcoe writes that at the same time, questions surrounding Venezuelan heavy oil returning to the U.S. market have led to the price differential between WTI crude and Western Canadian Select (WCS) heavy oil widening in the past week. On Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration released it latest short-term outlook, forecasting WTI oil will average $52 a barrel this year and dip to $50 a barrel in 2027. The EIA's outlook assumes American sanctions on Venezuela would stay in place through 2027, and any policy change that "could result in more oil production than we assumed in this forecast would put additional downward pressure on oil prices," the report states. Meanwhile, CIBC Capital Markets projects the differential will average $14.25 a barrel this year.
Producers and officials in the Alberta government are closely watching how geopolitical issues and supply-demand fundamentals unfold in the coming month.
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