The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, March 6, edition that Scotia Capital analyst Konark Gupta is keeping his "sector outperform" call for GFL Environmental intact. The Globe's David Leeder writes that Mr. Gupta jacked his share target up to $52 from $50 (all figures U.S.). Mr. Gupta says in a note: "We came away from GFL's investor day more positive on the long-term growth, margin and FCF story. Management laid out a clear strategy to grow EBITDA at 10- to 15-per-cent CAGR during 2025-2028 vs. pro forma 2024, along with faster FCF CAGR, driven by solid waste organic growth (pricing-led), sustainability earnings, self-help levers and M&A. It is not only anticipating an average annual expansion of 100 basis points in margin and 250 basis points in FCF conversion, but also projecting the leverage ratio to fall to two times by 2028 without incremental buybacks or atypical M&A. Such KPIs, if achieved, would help GFL close the gap to its peers, warranting an in-line valuation multiple. Based on GFL's 2028 projections, barring upside risk from lower interest rates or share buybacks beyond $2.25-billion, and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 16 times, we estimate the stock could be worth at least $75 ($110) in three years."
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