The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Nov. 28, edition that oil producers in Canada and Mexico may have to lower prices and redirect supply to Asia if Donald Trump imposes a 25-per-cent import tariff on crude from these countries, according to traders and analysts. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that two unnamed sources say that oil would not be exempt from potential tariff increases, despite warnings from the U.S. oil industry about negative impacts on consumers and national security. The U.S. takes in 61 per cent and 56 per cent of crude exports from Canada and Mexico, according to ship-tracking data. Canadian crude exports have jumped 65 per cent to about 530,000 barrels a day in 2024 after the opening of the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline increased shipments to the United States and Asia. Goldman Sachs's Daan Struyven says, "The Canadian producers, if they face export constraints, if they're not able to reroute their barrels that previously were exported to the U.S. to other markets, may face deeper discounts and may also suffer some revenue losses." Some traders and Goldman Sachs analysts doubt Mr. Trump will impose the tariffs since doing so could increase inflation for U.S. consumers and refiners.
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