The Financial Post reports in its Thursday edition that on Tuesday, geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran continued to unnerve global energy markets, propelling West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices higher by $1.65 a barrel to close at $61.15 (all figures U.S.). The Post's Chris Varcoe writes that at the same time, questions surrounding Venezuelan heavy oil returning to the U.S. market have led to the price differential between WTI crude and Western Canadian Select (WCS) heavy oil widening in the past week. On Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration released it latest short-term outlook, forecasting WTI oil will average $52 a barrel this year and dip to $50 a barrel in 2027. The EIA's outlook assumes American sanctions on Venezuela would stay in place through 2027. For Alberta, the oil price outlook will have implications on the province's finances. Every $1-a-barrel drop in the oil price differential over the course of the budget year lowers provincial revenues by $740-million.
According to the province's second-quarter fiscal update, the light-heavy oil differential is expected to average $11.30 a barrel for the 2025-26 year, which is $5.80 a barrel less than was budgeted last February.
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