The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday, March 25, edition that Canada's big bank stocks have held up well amid U.S. tariff threats from President Donald Trump. The Globe's David Berman writes that RBC's Darko Mihelic and CIBC's Paul Holden have delved into what equity valuations are suggesting about tariffs. Their conclusions might not come as good news to investors: Bank stocks, they believe, are reflecting optimism about whether tariffs become a reality and thwack the Canadian economy. The downside risks are significant if Mr. Trump's black Sharpie swings into action, with potential declines of 16 to 18 per cent, depending on the analyst. Mr. Mihelic notes that CIBC and Bank of Nova Scotia are more exposed to economic stress than their peers, given their relatively high loan exposure to Canada and, in the case of Scotiabank, Mexico. The stocks are down by an average of 10 per cent this year, lagging the sector. National Bank of Canada and Bank of Montreal are less risky. While National Bank is not lighting up anyone's portfolio, BMO is up slightly this year and way ahead of peers. On average, though, Mr. Mihelic doubts that valuations are reflecting a bad-case scenario for tariffs.