The National Post reports in its Saturday edition that the next prime minister is expected to face stagnant economic growth, with economists predicting a 0.2-per-cent contraction in the second quarter and no growth in the third quarter. A Bloomberg dispatch to the Post reports that business investment is forecasted to drop 3.8 per cent annually, with exports contracting 12.1 per cent from April to September. Over all, GDP growth is projected at just 1.2 per cent for the year and 1 per cent for 2026, down from earlier expectations of 1.5 per cent. Analysts estimate a 45-per-cent chance of recession within the next year. Mark Carney's Liberal party holds a small lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives ahead of Monday's election. A new prime minister faces a rapidly worsening economic outlook, worsened by President Donald Trump's tariff threats on Canada initiated in February. As his trade war expanded with tariffs on China and other countries, Canada's economic forecast has worsened further. Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne says, "We'll be through a period of turbulence in the short term, but I'm confident in the prospect of Canada." The weaker economic outlook poses challenges for both major parties.