The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that seasoned investors recognize the influence of narratives on market performance. The Globe's guest columnist Marius Jongstra writes that a recent example is the Canadian dollar, which hit a nearly 10-year low of $1.45 against the U.S. dollar (69 U.S. cents) in January but has since rallied 6 per cent to its highest level since October. However, Mr. Jongstra advises caution in interpreting this rebound as fundamental strength in the Canadian economy. He says the gains have been largely driven by broad U.S. dollar weakness.
A global perspective reveals the loonie to be among the weakest performers of G10 currencies against the greenback. Indeed, only the Australian dollar (up 4.1 per cent) has advanced by less. Meanwhile, the likes of the Swedish krona (up 14.9 per cent), Norwegian krone (up 12.1 per cent), Swiss franc (up 9.7 per cent) and euro (up 9.6 per cent) have seen the largest boosts. Mr. Jongstra expects continued sanctioning of a weaker currency by the Bank of Canada as an antidote for an economy that lacks productivity and has been mired in a per-capita GDP recession. Mr. Jongstra says there is nothing fundamental to the recent gains in the Canadian dollar.
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