The Financial Post reports in its Tuesday edition that economists expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate steady on Wednesday as it evaluates the effects of President Donald Trump's trade war. The Post's Jordan Gowling writes that Royal Bank of Canada analyst Jason Daw said: "We expect them to be on hold again at the June meeting. Given that they went on hold at the April meeting, the bar for them to cut again would be quite high, and the data that we've had in the interim has been mixed and not really sending them a signal to do anything at this time." The BOC remains in a tight spot, as it weighs the upside risks to inflation against the downside risks to growth brought on by U.S. tariffs.
Mr. Daw said the market is putting the likelihood of a policy rate cut on Wednesday at just 25 per cent and has only priced in 1-1/2 cuts for the remainder of the year. The BOC's policy rate currently sits at 2.75 per cent, after it paused for the first time at its April meeting, following seven consecutive cuts.
In April, core measures of inflation ran above 3 per cent and GDP for the first quarter came in better than expected, at an annual rate of 2.2 per cent, higher than the 1.8 per cent BOC forecast.
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