The Financial Post reports in its Friday, Oct. 23, edition that it's surprising that the markets expect a certain rate hike by the Bank of Canada next week and a two-in-three chance of another in December. The Post's guest columnist David Roseberg writes that all of this repricing is not coming out of the blue, but rather reflects a recent distinctive hawkish tone from Governor Tiff Macklem. Mr. Rosenberg understands the reasons behind the potential rate hike, but he disagrees and does not support it given the fragile state of the Canadian economy. He believes the current inflation stems from a global supply shock rather than domestic demand pressures, viewing it as a deflationary squeeze on real incomes and profit margins. The BOC can't control imported inflation from rising energy costs, so targeting headline inflation is like chasing pump prices. Mr. Rosenberg says we should question the appropriateness of focusing on something beyond our control.
If this was inflation driven by an overheated economy, that would be one thing, but that's not what we have on our hands currently. The pace of economic activity is expanding below its potential, as anemic as supply dynamics are, given the collapse in population growth.
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