The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday, Nov. 1, edition that Canadian banks and insurers in the U.S. face two potential scenarios after next week's election. The Globe's Stefanie Marotta and Clare O'Hara write that a Donald Trump victory may lead to less regulatory scrutiny, lower corporate taxes and higher profits due to inflation. Conversely, a Kamala Harris win would likely maintain stricter regulations and raise corporate tax rates.
In the wake of the U.S. banking crisis last year, President Joe Biden introduced regulations aimed at reinforcing the stability of the sector. Many of those new rules were criticized by Wall Street executives. Analysts predict that under a second Trump administration, higher tariffs will benefit banking businesses. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce analyst Paul Holden says Toronto-Dominion Bank and Bank of Montreal are the most likely to benefit from a Trump presidency. Among Canada's largest insurers, Sun Life Financial would benefit the most from a Trump victory. Mr. Holden says Sun Life generates about 45 per cent of its earnings in the U.S., where it has large operations in group benefits and insurance that would be affected by lower taxes and higher prices in U.S. equities.
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