The Financial Post reports in its Saturday, Aug. 24, edition that traders have heavily bet against the Canadian dollar, anticipating a further decline in its value due to a slowing Canadian economy and a dovish central bank. A Bloomberg dispatch to the Post reports that according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, hedge funds and asset managers have accrued about $14-billion (U.S.) short position in the Canadian dollar in early August. This marks the largest bet against the loonie since the 1990s, nearly double the previous peak. Despite the loonie's recent strengthening, the short position remains significantly larger than the next biggest currency short, which is against the Swiss franc.
This pessimistic outlook is supported by a softening forecast for Canada's economy, partly due to a recent drop in oil prices. In July, the country unexpectedly lost jobs, leading to the highest unemployment rate in over two years. Inflation has also cooled to the slowest since 2021, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Canada will likely cut interest rates for a third consecutive meeting before the anticipated interest-rate cuts by the United States Federal Reserve in September.
© 2024 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.