The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition that economists predict the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates for a third consecutive meeting, with expectations of a steady decrease in borrowing costs over the next year due to easing inflation. A Bloomberg dispatch to the Post reports that Governor Tiff Macklem is anticipated to lower the benchmark rate to 4.25 per cent at the upcoming meeting. Economists also forecast deeper cuts to borrowing costs over the next year, with the policy rate potentially decreasing to 3 per cent by next July. This aligns with market expectations for a gradual return to less restrictive monetary policy. The soft landing scenario is still the base case, with Canada's economy expected to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2025 as interest rates ease and export growth picks up. Inflation is forecast to reach the BOC's 2 per cent target by the end of 2025, from the current 2.5-per-cent pace.
The shift in outlook comes amid changing bets for the path for the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is seen loosening monetary conditions in September. Earlier this month, markets had started to price faster and deeper cuts in Canada after U.S. data showed the labour market weakening more quickly than anticipated.
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