The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday, Oct. 14, edition that analysts anticipate the Bank of Canada will continue rate cuts for rest of year, but opinions vary on how big cuts will be. A Canadian Press dispatch to The Globe reports that BMO economist Shelly Kaushik says, "We are looking for headline inflation to cool below the bank's 2-per-cent target in September." Ms. Kaushik expects annual headline inflation to have cooled to 1.8 per cent. However, she adds that the headline number could tick higher in the following report as pump prices rose in October.
The report on consumer price growth is set to be released Tuesday, and is the last big economic report before the BOC's next interest-rate decision on Oct. 23.
Toronto-Dominion Bank economist James Orlando predicts that headline inflation will decrease to 1.9 per cent in September, while core measures of inflation will remain above 2 per cent.
He says, "Now that we're back at the target, the focus is on how to maintain this level." RBC analyst Nathan Janzen says underlying inflation pressures are continuing to slow. The pressure is easing as interest-rate cuts work through the economy, but mortgage interest inflation will remain high for a while.
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