The Financial Post reports in its Friday, Oct. 18, edition that with Canada's official inflation measure now significantly below the 2-per-cent target, two-thirds of economists believe the Bank of Canada will reduce its rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday.
The Post's Robert McLister writes that if there is a wave of rate cuts coming, pay close attention to bond yields. Yields act like a GPS for fixed mortgage rates, which are the most popular choice among mortgage shoppers. Every borrower is keen to know the BOC's next move regarding interest rates, and the bond market can provide valuable insights.
At first glance, one might expect yields to decrease, but bond markets tend to be forward looking. They often anticipate that a more accommodating BOC policy will boost the economy and increase inflation. This expectation can lead to lower fixed rates for a certain period, but eventually, rising yields can push those rates higher.
However, it seems we are not at that point just yet. Inflation is still doing its best impression of a lead balloon and the BOC fears it could fall too much below the 2-per-cent bull's-eye. That is why bond traders are betting on more cuts.
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