The Financial Post reports in its Friday, Oct. 25, edition that after the Bank of Canada's rate-hacking spree on Wednesday, five-year variable mortgage rates are now within 46 points of rock-bottom fixed rates. The Post's Robert McLister writes that the variable to fixed rate gap has shrunk nearly 100 basis points since March.
Looking ahead into 2025, the bond market's crystal ball shows another 100 basis points of easing. That would total the equivalent of nine quarter-point rate cuts since June, 2024. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is basically telling us to reach for our spending gun, to run out and borrow. He pledged Wednesday that if inflation keeps behaving, "we expect to reduce the policy rate further." The question is, how much further? With inflation 40 basis points below its 2-per-cent target and GDP at a crawl, there is no argument from economists that Canada needs at least 50 basis points more easing. Mr. McLister notes that if the market's crystal ball is off by just two rate cuts, borrowers' projected variable-rate savings could evaporate. Many borrowers will manage the risk of a rate rebound by flocking to leading three-year fixed rates instead of playing roulette with a variable.
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