The Financial Post reports in its Wednesday edition that Canada's inflation rate rose to 2 per cent in October, up from 1.6 per cent in September, largely due to smaller declines in gasoline prices, according to Statistics Canada. The Post's Jordan Gowling writes that this increase lowers the likelihood of a big interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada next month. While markets had anticipated rate cuts in December, the chance of a 50-basis-point reduction has dropped to 31 per cent following this data. CIBC economist Andrew Dicapua still predicts a 50-basis-point cut, anticipating weaker third quarter GDP numbers. However, BMO economist Douglas Porter suggests that, unless job numbers are poor, the BOC will likely implement a smaller 25-basis-point cut. Mr. Porter said: "This heavy result should take some more steam out of the call for another 50-basis-point rate cut from the Bank of Canada in December. We have been in the 25-basis-point camp from the start and this report only reinforces that expectation, along with evidence that housing is stirring, the Fed will turn more cautious and a limping loonie." TD economist James Orlando thinks Tuesday's data prove stabilizing inflation will not be a smooth path for the BOC.
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