The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, Oct. 24, edition that central banks usually increase rates to cool off an overheating economy, but that's not the situation in Canada right now. The Globe's Tim Shufelt writes that there is plenty of doubt that the economy can even handle a tightening cycle right now. CIBC Capital Markets economist Avery Shenfeld say, "We aren't yet sure that any rate hikes will be warranted in the coming year, so moving early could be a step that the bank comes to regret." The case for a hike ultimately comes down to inflation, which is picking up enough speed to make the BOC uncomfortable. Governor Tiff Macklem hinted last weekend that inflation for 2026 is tracking "quite a bit higher" than the bank's July forecast of 2.5 per cent and questioned if inflation would "likely" return to target on its own. The BOC then began its customary communications blackout in advance of this Wednesday's rate announcement, leaving economists to ruminate on what seemed to be a hawkish turn. Traders quickly pushed the odds of a rate hike to higher than 80 per cent -- not quite a slam dunk, but close enough. Markets are now pricing in at least four hikes over roughly the next year.