The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, Feb. 4, edition that the Bank of Canada in a recent report depicted risks to the global and Canadian economies. The Globe's guest columnist Don Drummond writes that the BOC's Monetary Policy Report attributes a 1.5-per-cent reduction in real GDP projections by the end of 2026 to current U.S. tariffs, highlighting their negative impact on Canadian investment, productivity and growth. It notes that diversifying away from the U.S. will be time-consuming and costly. The BOC has its eyes wide open to the possibility that trade relations with the United States could get even worse were the U.S. to withdraw from USMCA, renegotiate it with less favourable terms to Canada, or not reach any agreement, which would leave USMCA in place but prolong uncertainty. However, owing to two key assumptions, none of these risks appear to be reflected in the BOC's economic projection: The implication of these assumptions is not only is USMCA renegotiated as is, but the process is smooth. That does not seem a good bet in the environment of statements coming from the U.S. administration of disinterest in free trade and the frequency and volatility of its international trade threats.