The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, May 20, edition that Canadian government bond yields hit a 16-year high on Tuesday amid a global bond sell-off, raising borrowing costs. The Globe's Andrew Galbraith writes that this increase occurred despite cooler-than-expected inflation data from Statistics Canada and reflects global inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty from the war in Iran. For Canadians, the rising five-year yield is particularly concerning as it reached its highest point in nearly 22 months before stabilizing.
Desjardins economist Royce Mendes says: "My base case is that five-year yields will come down. But given this is a global phenomenon driving five-year yields, it's hard to have a lot of confidence in that right now."
Beyond the headline numbers, economists say core inflation remains muted, in part because of easing housing costs. Bank of Montreal economist Douglas Porter calls the inflation report "unambiguously soft" and predicts it will dampen speculation about coming interest rate hikes. National Bank Financial economist Daren King says higher mortgage rates lifted by rising bond yields illustrates the repercussions of the conflict in the Middle East on Canadian housing.
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