The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition that mortgage broker Victor Tran often gets asked if clients should choose a variable mortgage due to the possibility of the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates. The Globe's Salmaan Farooqui writes that since the war in Iran, however, and new United States tariff threats on Canadian goods, Mr. Tran suggests the likelihood of variable rates rising is greater than of them falling. Bond swaps markets, which capture investor expectations around interest rates, are predicting a quarter-point rate hike from the BOC by year's end. The BOC is also expected to implement one or two more hikes in 2027. Rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict are a key reason analysts suggest rate hikes may be needed. While concerns about a trade war could favour rate cuts, many economists believe such cuts may not be necessary given the resilience of the economy. The spread between the cheapest available five-year variable mortgage and three-year fixed rate was roughly 60 basis points as of Thursday afternoon. Mr. Tran says the spread can be even smaller for some clients, depending on the actual rates they're quoted, meaning there's potentially little advantage for the higher risk.