The Financial Post reports in its Wednesday edition that Goldman Sachs chief David Solomon says the risk of a U.S. recession could rise suddenly depending on how the administration reacts to the Iran war on social media. A Bloomberg dispatch to the Post reports that Mr. Solomon says a larger or smaller risk of an economic downturn could be "only one tweet away." He says current forecasts for a recession remain fairly low. The remark highlights how financial markets have reacted to President Donald Trump's social media posts. Last week, his unconfirmed claim about Iran not closing the Strait of Hormuz led to a stock market rally and a drop in oil prices. Goldman pegs the chances of a recession at about 20 per cent, only slightly higher than the 15 per cent that's their base case in a "benign environment." Mr. Solomon says it is reasonable that oil prices will remain around $80 to $100 per barrel for the next three to six months, but warned that a severe escalation could push prices to $170 (all figures U.S.). Benchmark crude futures are up about 30 per cent since the war began. They spiked near $120 a barrel in March, though are trading around $95 now on signs Iran will attend talks with the U.S. to end the conflict.