The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that the connection between the artificial intelligence boom and rising borrowing costs is significant. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that while the current AI investment frenzy heats up, a long-term productivity surge is pushing up estimates of neutral interest rates. Bond market jitters are partly linked to the Iran war, while record-high stock markets are puzzling amid an energy crunch. However, Goldman Sachs estimates that $7.6-trillion (U.S.) in AI-related capital expenditures over the next five years is a major factor affecting both bonds and stocks, prompting investment firms to reevaluate the broader macroeconomic impact of AI.
There's a growing belief that the shift from savings to investment, along with AI-driven productivity gains, will increase R-star -- the neutral real interest rate that indicates economic equilibrium.
The Institute of International Finance said last week that a successful AI cycle could raise R-star by increasing expected returns and capital formation, thus boosting desired investment relative to savings.
"Markets should not assume a return to the very low real rate world of the 2010s based on the ongoing AI boom," it added.
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