The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, June 13, edition that the World Meteorological Organization warns that intense El Nino conditions may lead to extreme weather globally. The Globe's David Berman writes that this could significantly affect the demand for crop nutrients like nitrogen, phosphate, potassium and potash, strengthening the bullish case for Nutrien, whose share price is currently stagnant. But for a topsy-turvy stock, it is better to invest when it is turvy (low) rather than topsy (high). This year's attack on Iran by the United States had the stock rallying, underscoring Nutrien's sensitivity to geopolitical conflict. With the Iran war relatively contained the share price slipped below $91 on Wednesday, falling back to January levels. But perhaps the weather is posing a new threat that will give fertilizer stocks, and Nutrien in particular, another lift. The WMO estimates that there is a 90-per-cent chance that unusually pronounced El Nino conditions will persist until November. If recent trading action suggests anything, it is that Nutrien looks best when calamity seems like a distant threat. By the time it arrives, the stock might not look like a great deal any more.