The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, May 14, edition that global oil supply will not meet total demand this year as the Iran war wreaks havoc on Middle East oil production, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.
A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that the Iran war has caused the largest oil supply crisis in history.
The IEA said, "With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply losses from Middle East Gulf producers already exceed one billion barrels with more than 14 million barrels a day of oil now shut in."
The IEA forecasts imply that supply will come in 1.78 million barrels-per-day below total demand in 2026, erasing a 410,000 b/d surplus projected in last month's report and a close to 4 million b/d surplus in its December report.
"Our latest supply and demand estimates imply that the market will remain severely under-supplied through the end of 3Q26, even assuming the conflict ends by early June," the IEA said, adding that the second quarter deficit will be as stark as six million b/d.
Supply losses led to a 246 million barrel drawdown in global oil inventories in March and April, the IEA said, which could increase price volatility ahead of the peak summer demand period.
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