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by Stockwatch Business Reporter

West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery took another tumble, shedding $4.14 to $64.37 on the New York Merc, while Brent for August lost $4.34 to $67.14 (all figures in this para U.S.). Western Canadian Select traded at a discount of $11.50 to WTI, down from a discount of $6.70. Natural gas for July lost 16 cents to $3.53. The TSX energy index lost 4.03 points to close at 268.02.

Despite turbulent oil prices, Canadian oil sands production will reach an all-time high this year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. In its latest annual outlook, released this morning, the division's analysts predicted that 2025 oil production will hit 3.5 million barrels a day, a 5-per-cent jump from 2024. As well, for the fourth year in a row, the analysts have hiked their 10-year oil sands outlook, forecasting production of 3.9 million barrels a day in 2030. This is a 3-per-cent increase over last year's outlook.

"The increased trajectory for Canadian oil sands production growth amidst a period of oil price volatility reflects producers' continued emphasis on optimization -- and the favourable economics that underpin such operations," said the analysts. They noted that although oil sands projects require large upfront costs, they enjoy low break-even costs once completed, and operators are always looking for new ways to shave costs even further (through technological upgrades, debottlenecking and so on). By their estimate, the average half-cycle break-even price for oil sands production in 2025 is just $27 (U.S.) WTI. (This is not a full-cycle estimate; it excludes those big upfront costs, as well as future closure and reclamation obligations.)

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