The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that incoming U.S. president Donald Trump is more than a wild card. Columnist Gordon Pape writes that Mr. Trump is like a flock of black swans descending all at once. Should Mr. Trump go ahead with his announced tariff plan on Jan. 20, it will have a modest negative impact on U.S. stocks, but the Toronto Stock Exchange will probably get hammered. The longer the tariffs remain in place, even with a carve-out for oil, the greater the pressure on Canadian stocks. Even the banks, which at first glance would seem to have little exposure to tariffs, will be affected by a slowing economy. Many economists have said that the result will be a Canadian recession by midyear. And it could drag on if Mr. Trump's real motive is to tighten the screws in an effort to force Canada to meet his demands -- whatever those may be. We could be looking at a worse loss than in 2018, when the S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 11.64 per cent. If the tariffs remain in place for the full year and Mr. Trump's rhetoric continues to threaten Canada, we could approach the loss of 35 per cent incurred during the financial crisis year of 2008. That is the worst-case scenario, Mr. Pape says.