The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition that if Donald Trump goes ahead with his 25-per-cent tariff on imports from Canada, the hit to our real GDP would be 2 per cent and the job losses would top 400,000. Guest columnist David Rosenberg writes that the result would be a jump in unemployment to nearly 8 per cent, a level reached in each of the past six recessions. The Canadian dollar would likely sink to 67 U.S. cents or lower, and the Bank of Canada would be compelled to cut rates at least another percentage point to around 2 per cent. All this does not mean the Toronto Stock Exchange would go down. The tariff move would be a negative for the materials, industrials and consumer goods sectors, but the services side (like the dominant financials) would not be directly affected and are likely to benefit from lower financing costs and a steeper yield curve. Other sectors, such as telecom, REITs and utilities, would also benefit from lower rates, and the weaker Canadian dollar would be a boon to domestic players in the travel and tourism industry. These areas command a near 50-per-cent share of the TSX, which outweigh the sectors (roughly 30 per cent) that would be most harmed by the U.S. trade action.