The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday, July 30, edition that National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev has elevated his recommendation for Aecon Group to "outperform" from "sector perform." The Globe's David Leeder writes in the Eye On Equities column that Mr. Sytchev's $20 share target exceeds the average on the Street by 18 cents. Mr. Sytchev says the "worst is likely behind" Aecon Group. Mr. Sytchev says in a note: "Our 2024 projection is a 'clean' (as much as it's possible given all the moving parts) run-rate for EBITDA (i.e. excluding the previously announced write-downs). In fairness, we believe our 2025 EBITDA estimate to be a better gauge for the underlying business going forward, assuming normalized conditions.
Consensus for 2024 is still highly dispersed as the Street is not uniform when it comes [to] treatment of accounting charges. With Finch and Eglinton LRT nearing completion, we believe the core earnings for the business should attain a more normalized rate in 2025 and onwards, the year that anchors our NAV. Of course, with legacy projects comes the risk of FCF and WC strain, hence why our conservative FCF estimates remain relatively unchanged. At least the balance sheet is no longer an issue."
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