The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition that Stifel analyst Ian Gillies has an unchanged "buy" recommendation for Algoma Steel Group. The Globe's David Leeder writes that Mr. Gillies bumped his share target ahead by a loonie to $16. Analysts on average target the shares at $14.25. The Globe says Mr. Gillies is "looking past" significant near-term reductions to his estimates for Algoma Steel following last week's release of lower-than-expected guidance for the first quarter of its fiscal 2025. Mr. Gillies says in a note: "If we were to put Algoma on the Lassonde Curve today it would be imminently transitioning to the development/start-up phase from the orphan period as it finishes construction of its $850-million electric arc furnace. At which point, the company's capex spend will decline meaningfully and free cash flow should inflect higher, indicative of a period of significant share price appreciation on the Lassonde Curve. Moreover, the possibility for significant share buybacks are higher given our forecast of a post EAF FCF yield of 35 per cent at $800 (U.S.) HRC and $975 (U.S.) plate. ... The company's strong balance sheet and government support leave it well positioned to fund [its] growth plan."
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