The Financial Post reports in its Thursday edition that few times in history has the U.S. market grappled with as many headwinds as it has faced in 2025: a new President rejigging the global order, sweeping tariffs and a new conflict in the Middle East. A Bloomberg dispatch to the Post says that stocks have still prevailed against all odds and sit just a whisker away from all-time highs. But the higher the S&P 500 index goes, the louder the concern that its multiples are starting to look frothy. The index is trading at 22 times expected profits in the next 12 months, 35 per cent above its long-term average. Of the 20 such valuation metrics tracked by Bank of America strategists, the S&P 500 is screening expensive on each one. While valuations are unlikely market-timing tools, with stock prices revving louder than the corporate engines of the S&P 500 companies, one back-of-the-envelope measure shows an extreme disconnect on the valuation charts. That is at a time when investors are about to confront some crucial risks. U.S. President Donald Trump's self-imposed July 9 deadline to reach deals with the country's major trading partners is fast approaching, and the next earnings cycle starts soon after.
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