The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition that Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman has lowered Martinrea International to "sector perform" from "sector outperform," citing downside risk to its 2024 guidance, which missed the Street's projection by 13 per cent at the midpoint. The Globe's David Leeder writes in the Eye On Equities column that Mr. Goldman's share target fell to $15 from $18.50. Analysts on average target the shares at $19.33. Mr. Goldman says in a note: "We use the 4Q EBIT run-rate of $57-million as a starting point and add back: 1) the resolution of the Tier 2 supplier issue (70 basis point drag to 4Q); 2) the UAW impact; 3) lower tooling sales in 2024; and 4) $28-million of restructuring benefits (over the next six quarters). We get to EBIT (margin) of $292-million (5.7 per cent) versus guidance of $306-million (6 per cent) at the midpoint. ... While NA volume guidance could be conservative (the company is assuming 15.7 million units; we're thinking 16 million), we expect European volumes (20 per cent of Martinrea sales) to decline sequentially through 2024 and EV headwinds to persist (in all regions). Moreover, guidance bakes-in additional commercial recoveries which are not fait accompli."
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