The Financial Post reports in its Friday edition that oil analysts are reassessing the risk premium for the global crude market amid the potential for U.S. intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict. A Bloomberg dispatch to the Post reports that Brent futures currently reflect a geopolitical premium of about $8 (U.S.) per barrel due to the recent attacks. Goldman Sachs, however, pegs the risk premium at $10 (U.S.) per barrel. The extent of any increase would depend on the nature of U.S. involvement, according to nine industry respondents. Senior U.S. officials are preparing for a potential strike on Iran, with plans for a weekend attack under consideration. President Donald Trump has publicly hinted at joining these actions, risking escalation in a region needed for global oil supply. Traders are focused on the Strait of Hormuz, crucial for global crude shipments, and on Iran's oil infrastructure, which currently remains operational. Bloomberg says recent data show an increase in Iranian exports since the attacks began. Goldman Sachs says, "The term structure of implied volatility and call skew suggest that oil markets believe that much higher prices are likely in the next few months."
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