The Globe and Mail reports in it Saturday, June 28, edition that about 10 days ago, fears of a regional war in the Middle East escalated, following Israel's attack on Iran on June 13. The Globe's Eric Reguly writes that war worries had Brent crude surging from under $70 (U.S.) to nearly $80 (U.S.). Many anticipated oil prices would soar to $100 (U.S.). However, the opposite occurred. Oil prices dropped significantly, falling more than 7 per cent by the end of Monday -- one of the biggest declines in nearly three years -- ultimately sinking below $68 (U.S.) as a Trump-inspired ceasefire emerged. Traders likely profited from the unexpected decline amidst widespread fear of rising prices. Traders figured out that all-out regional war, or worse, was not imminent. They considered whether President Donald Trump, motivated by his desire for a Nobel Peace Prize, would extend U.S. attacks beyond Iran's nuclear sites and follow Israel's wishes. The traders also anticipated that the Iranians would not use sea mines, missiles or their navy to close Hormuz.
Wars in oil-producing regions usually drive up oil prices, but this time, the market correctly assessed the situation as less impactful.
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