The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem wrote an essay published last week, emphasizing that the surge of inflation in the last three years has been a "stark reminder" that central banks cannot always ignore supply shocks and expect price increases to stabilize on their own. The Globe's Mark Rendell writes that in comments that are among his most detailed to date about the bank's fight with inflation, Mr. Macklem wrote that he and his colleagues had underestimated the inflationary risk posed by the combination of supply shocks and elevated consumer demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. The BOC's models were not accurately calibrated to measure price pressures throughout the economy. Additionally, BOC officials were not paying enough attention to the risk of a sharp rise in inflation. Mr. Macklem's essay focuses on the BOC's forecasting errors and why it waited until early 2022 to start raising interest rates despite fast-rising inflation -- something he and his colleagues now see, in retrospect, as a mistake. When consumer goods prices jumped in 2021 Mr. Macklem and many other central bankers dismissed this as "transitory." That proved to be a serious miscalculation.