The Financial Post reports in its Wednesday, March 19, edition that February's consumer price index surprised economists, with a 2.6 per cent year-over-year inflation rate, surpassing the expected 2.2 per cent. The Post's Gigi Suhanic writes that Statistics Canada attributed the rise, up from 1.9 per cent in January, primarily to the end of the GST/HST holiday in mid-February.
The "upside surprise makes the Bank of Canada's job even harder," says Capital Economics economist Stephen Brown. He says the inflation numbers cast doubt on expectations that policy-makers will cut interest rates for an eighth consecutive time at their next policy meeting on April 16.
Mr. Brown says the CPI outstripped estimates, but, more important, the BOC's preferred measures of core inflation, which remove taxes, also rose last month. He says, "The upshot is that, despite the downside risks to the economic outlook from U.S. tariffs, we may need to revisit our view that the BOC will cut interest rates again as soon as next month." Desjardins Group's Royce Mendes says the latest inflation report gives policy-makers plenty of reason to "temporarily" pause rate cuts as inflation appears to be on the march again.
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